今日汇评

　　本周伊始，因市场越来越担忧希腊确保可以从欧盟/国际货币基金组织获得下一批援助资金的能力，同时越来越预期希腊会陷入违约漩涡，为此风险偏好遭遇重创。由于三驾马车将继续就下一批援助资金展开对话，希腊总理帕潘德里欧取消访问美国的原计划，以响应日益增长的国内紧张局势。但美国盖特纳上周的评论对市场信心并未有起到多大帮助作用，他表示，大型欧盟经济体应该从这场危机中分离出来–但由欧盟官员对此构想产生怀疑，他们认为他们能够并且可以应对希腊困境可以继续维持其欧元区成员国地位。

　　由于欧元区债务危机的不愉快状态，欧元兑美元今天已经达到1.3646的低点，而亚洲股市指数几乎全面飘红。当天恒生指数上涨下滑2.3%，上证综指下滑1.3%。因日本今日是公众假期，日经指数休市，但如果这些损失扩大到欧洲和美国市场的开盘，则一旦假期结束，日本股市可能会进行追赶，毫无疑问也会受损。

　　其他消息方面，新西兰第三季度西太平洋消费者信心指数于今天上午释放，保持112.0不变；鉴于其他地方的前景和信心的恶化，这种稳定的指数实际上是相当可观的。然而，在目前这种不确定性的情况下，新西兰央行不太可能动摇到加息角度，所以这一数据没有对纽元兑美元造成显著影响也是不足为奇的。投资者的重点应转移到周四释放的第二季度国内生产总值；预期季比温和上升0.5%。

　　今天的数据日历非常清淡，只有欧元区的建造工程完成量和美国NAHB房屋市场指数。

　　Risk appetite has suffered at the start of this week, as the market grows more and more concerned about Greece’s ability to secure the next instalments of funding from the EU/IMF, and greater speculation of a default swirls. Greek Prime Minister Papandreou cancelled a planned visit to the US in response to the growing domestic tension, as talks with the troika to release the next tranche of funding continue. Confidence was not helped by comments from US Secretary Geithner last week suggesting that bigger EU economies should be ring-fenced from the crisis– an idea that casts doubt on the conviction from European officials that they can and will fight to keep Greece afloat and keep within the Eurozone.

　　Given the unhappy state of the Eurozone debt crisis, EURUSD has hit a low of 1.3646 today, and Asian equity indices are almost all in the red. The Hang Seng is-2.3% on the day, and Shanghai Composite-1.3%. Due to the public holiday in Japan, the Nikkei is closed but if these losses extend into the European and US open then Japanese stocks are no doubt likely to play catch-up once the holiday period is over.

　　In other news, New Zealand's Q3 Westpac consumer confidence figure was this morning and remained unchanged at 112.0; given the deterioration in outlook and confidence elsewhere, this stable reading is actually rather impressive. Nevertheless, the RBNZ is unlikely to be swayed into hiking during the present uncertainty, so it is unsurprising that NZDUSD was not significantly affected by the release. Investor focus should now shift to the Q2 GDP release due on Thursday; a modest 0.5% quarterly rise is expected.

　　Coming up the data calendar is very light, with only Eurozone Construction output and the US NAHB housing market index due.